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Re: Relegation
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 8:28 pm
by AjaxAndy
Just looked at the table and Luton have won 6 games all season... If we didn't win another point they'd need to win 3 of their last 4... That's 50% of the entire wins they've achieved all season.
Forest would need 2 wins and 2 draws, or 3 wins.
I know we all are pretty confident of being safe now, but shows just how comfortable we really are.
Re: Relegation
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:01 pm
by superpull
AjaxAndy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 8:28 pm
Just looked at the table and Luton have won 6 games all season... If we didn't win another point they'd need to win 3 of their last 4... That's 50% of the entire wins they've achieved all season.
Forest would need 2 wins and 2 draws, or 3 wins.
I know we all are pretty confident of being safe now, but shows just how comfortable we really are.
How many had we won all season/how many at home had we won all season before we won 3 of the last 4?
Re: Relegation
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:07 pm
by Shogun
Apart from Brighton, not sure there's been a side more impacted by injuries over the last few months than Luton. Adebayo coming back could make a huge difference in the run-in for them.
We're safe as far as I'm concerned.
Re: Relegation
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:15 pm
by AjaxAndy
superpull wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:01 pm
How many had we won all season/how many at home had we won all season before we won 3 of the last 4?
Yeah but I think the chances of either Forest or Luton winning 3 out of 4 games is about as low as you can get. We did go on a very bad run but we'd had a good one prior to that showing we are capable.
Although Forest need 2 wins and 2 draws to overhaul us (and us not pick up any points) their next game is Man City, so again really like Luton they need to win 3 games to even have a chance of passing us as they won't get a sniff against City.
To go down that'd mean Luton and Forest need to win 6 games between them from 8 fixtures. The chances of us going down are about a billion to one.
Re: Relegation
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:37 pm
by HANNU
AjaxAndy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:15 pm
To go down that'd mean Luton and Forest need to win 6 games between them from 8 fixtures. The chances of us going down are about a billion to one.
The chances based on that we have a 0.7% chance of religation is actually 142 to 1 but I love your optimism
Re: Relegation
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:44 pm
by AjaxAndy
HANNU wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:37 pm
The chances based on that we have a 0.7% chance of religation is actually 142 to 1 but I love your optimism
Haha well it's very very unlikely either way
Re: Relegation
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 10:27 pm
by superpull
Yeah, it's pretty academic like.
But Luton scraping a win at Wolves and us being shit at home against Brentford is definitely more likely than 10%.
Then Luton beating us isn't exactly a lottery win of a likelihood.
Then they're only 2 points behind us.
Granted, Forest aren't likely to beat City next up.
But I would very much like to get to mathematical certainty as soon as possible. (Be great to get to 40+ points after the deduction to be honest, that might be a stretch too far though)
Re: Relegation
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 11:47 pm
by Cantoffee
Shogun wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:07 pm
Apart from Brighton, not sure there's been a side more impacted by injuries over the last few months than Luton. Adebayo coming back could make a huge difference in the run-in for them.
We're safe as far as I'm concerned.
Would 100% have Adebayo here you know. Think he'd fit a Dyche team and better than Beto.
Re: Relegation
Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 3:13 am
by Blueomar
sure would rather be on 41 than 33.
Re: Relegation
Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 5:09 am
by Paddockoldie
HANNU wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:37 pm
The chances based on that we have a 0.7% chance of religation is actually 142 to 1 but I love your optimism
Banging a score on that... life's a double edged sword, but money wins
Re: Relegation
Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 7:13 am
by Goaljira
AjaxAndy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:15 pm
Yeah but I think the chances of either Forest or Luton winning 3 out of 4 games is about as low as you can get. We did go on a very bad run but we'd had a good one prior to that showing we are capable.
Although Forest need 2 wins and 2 draws to overhaul us (and us not pick up any points) their next game is Man City, so again really like Luton they need to win 3 games to even have a chance of passing us as they won't get a sniff against City.
To go down that'd mean Luton and Forest need to win 6 games between them from 8 fixtures. The chances of us going down are about a billion to one they say.
And still they came.....
Duh duh duuuuuuuh
Re: Relegation
Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 8:05 am
by AjaxAndy
Paddockoldie wrote: ↑Fri Apr 26, 2024 5:09 am
Banging a score on that... life's a double edged sword, but money wins
It's not even good odds imo... The chances of BOTH Luton and Forest over taking us are soooo small that even at 1000/1 it'd be a pretty rubbish bet
Re: Relegation
Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 8:07 am
by CannockPricey
I think we'll be fine but a Burnley win at Old Trafford which isn't the most outrageous suggestion given some of United's performances this season might make the Forest v Luton equation a bit more complex.
If Burnley can be within a couple of points going to the last day, they are at home to Forest which with Forest in this slightly weird meltdown, they would have a very decent chance of winning.
Re: Relegation
Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 8:31 am
by Gary1878
We aren’t mathematically safe but we aren’t going down. You may as well lock the thread.
It’s between Forest, Luton and Burnley now.
Re: Relegation
Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 8:40 am
by superpull
May as well keep it open to save creating a new one next November
