David Moyes

[Toddacelli]

He is the definition of safety.

I'm not sure anyone can argue why we have to be happy with last season, happy for safety, happy for stability etc when you see who got into Europe.

It's brainwashing, Everton fans should be satisfied with this, and tbh David Moyes is the manager who stirred up that brainwashing shite.

Exactly. What is the club motto for if not to guide us through times like these and remind us that mid-table is not good enough, settling is not good enough and unless we finish a few places higher next season - Moyes isn’t good enough.

[Risky]

To me the arguments around were we closer to relegation, closer to Europe, whatever, are not important.

What's important to me is whether I think Moyes is the right man to get the most out of the current position we find ourselves in - in terms of squad, finances, constraints, the relative strengths of other clubs etc. This is where he falls down for me, because his inherent conservatism and his insistence on square pegs in round holes etc holds us back in my opinion. I firmly believe that there are much better managers out there who would be able to achieve more and progress us further than Moyes is able to, mainly as he insists on hamstringing himself with his decision making.

We're 20 years on, football has moved on, but Moyes just hasn't. It's a bit insane to expect him to change at this point.

I am grateful to him for a lot of what he's done, including coming back in 18 months ago and pulling us out of a Dyche hole. But I'm sick of us being sentimentality FC and wish we'd grow a backbone, be a bit brutal, and do what's best for progressing the club. Honestly, I think some people are suffering with Stockholm Syndrome when it comes to Moyes.

[Audrey Horne]

Great post.

We really are quite pathetic!!

[Indiantoffee75]

Regardless of points and final position last season, we have improved, you’ve only got to look at the table to see from third down, it’s been a more competitive season all round, we were never at any point worried about a relegation scrap and only just missed out in Europe due to a shit end to the season. We’re in phase two now of the rebuild, I’m sure we’ll get the fullbacks situation sorted, hopefully find a buyer for Barry and replace him with someone more suited to the league. With a fit Grealish, Brainthwaite, new fullbacks and striker sorted we’ll be challenging top 7.

Lots of ifs here. I'm not sure we're bringing another leftback in if Mykolenko has just signed an extension, equally we're unlikely to be getting rid of Barry after one season.
Given Grealish's and Branthwaites injury records, your expecting them to remain fit through the entire campaign? Not convinced that happens based on both players history with long term injuries.

Need pace on the flanks and adequate replacement for Ndiaye as he looked destined to leave.

League will be much stronger next season. A top half finish might well be seen as improvement. I wonder if Angus in twelve months time will call it 'mildly satisfied' should that happen.

[Cods]

Arteta's taken 6.5 years.

Forest tried it in 1 and are suffering.

How long does it take to build a squad, a depleted one in our case?

Villa, similar club to us, it took 5 seasons after getting out of the championship (where they could steady and plan their run for a few years) to return and then compete for Europe.

So maybe 5 years similarly is about right for us including some time to steady the ship.

Where should we be finishing now?

Net spend is a good measure when determining expected league position. (bar a couple of minnows beating the odds through incredibly good organisation and planning)

Ours over the last 5 seasons relative to the league = 18th

The best predictor is apparently wage bill, and we had the 16th highest in the league last season.

Expected Points had us finishing 14th, with a 10 point gap to 10th, as we conceded 10 goals fewer than we should have according to one measure of xG.

So by the best measures, we actually over-performed, rather than under-performed.

Low manager turnover (which we've not had for a long time) and a stable core of players (particularly the first 11) also leads to better performance. Maybe he's onto something.

[Bluebridge]

Lots of ifs here. I'm not sure we're bringing another leftback in if Mykolenko has just signed an extension, equally we're unlikely to be getting rid of Barry after one season.
Given Grealish's and Branthwaites injury records, your expecting them to remain fit through the entire campaign? Not convinced that happens based on both players history with long term injuries.

Need pace on the flanks and adequate replacement for Ndiaye as he looked destined to leave.

League will be much stronger next season. A top half finish might well be seen as improvement. I wonder if Angus in twelve months time will call it 'mildly satisfied' should that happen.

It was much stronger this season than previous ones.

[Indiantoffee75]

It was much stronger this season than previous ones.

If last season was stronger and we finished 13th, next will be further strengthened by teams such as Chelsea and Spurs.

Challenging 7th will be even more of a tough ask.

[Indiantoffee75]

Arteta's taken 6.5 years.

Forest tried it in 1 and are suffering.

How long does it take to build a squad, a depleted one in our case?

Villa, similar club to us, it took 5 seasons after getting out of the championship (where they could steady and plan their run for a few years) to return and then compete for Europe.

So maybe 5 years similarly is about right for us including some time to steady the ship.

Where should we be finishing now?

Net spend is a good measure when determining expected league position. (bar a couple of minnows beating the odds through incredibly good organisation and planning)

Ours over the last 5 seasons relative to the league = 18th

The best predictor is apparently wage bill, and we had the 16th highest in the league last season.

Expected Points had us finishing 14th, with a 10 point gap to 10th, as we conceded 10 goals fewer than we should have according to one measure of xG.

So by the best measures, we actually over-performed, rather than under-performed.

Low manager turnover (which we've not had for a long time) and a stable core of players (particularly the first 11) also leads to better performance. Maybe he's onto something.

Or in the case of Sunderland. 11/12 players have come in one window.

Palace lost Eze and then Guehi in January. Glasner made it clear there were short on numbers going into the season.

Has Glasner had to build a squad over the last two seasons to pick up three trophies?

[AjaxAndy]

If last season was stronger and we finished 13th, next will be further strengthened by teams such as Chelsea and Spurs.

Challenging 7th will be even more of a tough ask.

I always think this argument fails to take in to account Sunderland, Bournemouth and Brighton all juggling European football which will likely lead to them finishing lower down.

Every summer people say it'll be harder next year, but every year is different and many factors affect how easy or hard it is to achieve a given goal.

I'd fully expect Spurs and Chelsea to improve drastically, but others drop off, and us strengthen. So top 7-8 should still be the target.

[777Kidnappings]

I always think this argument fails to take in to account Sunderland, Bournemouth and Brighton all juggling European football which will likely lead to them finishing lower down.

Every summer people say it'll be harder next year, but every year is different and many factors affect how easy or hard it is to achieve a given goal.

I'd fully expect Spurs and Chelsea to improve drastically, but others drop off, and us strengthen. So top 7-8 should still be the target.

Forest are going to be better too. I think the problem is that the 3 you mentioned dropping off have done significantly better than us in the transfer market too. So until that changes its going to be difficult

7-8th is the target but theres probably 17 teams with that target. 12-15th is more likely

[sam of the south]

If we continue that nosedive form from the end of last season then we’ll be aiming for 17th rather than 7th, and I felt that form had been coming for a while.

[AjaxAndy]

Forest are going to be better too. I think the problem is that the 3 you mentioned dropping off have done significantly better than us in the transfer market too. So until that changes its going to be difficult

7-8th is the target but theres probably 17 teams with that target. 12-15th is more likely

Will they though?

Last time Porto guy kept a team up he was sacked with them rock bottom part way in to the following season. They're likely losing Anderson and MGW too.

I wouldn't take anything as granted for them next season.

[Indiantoffee75]

I always think this argument fails to take in to account Sunderland, Bournemouth and Brighton all juggling European football which will likely lead to them finishing lower down.

Every summer people say it'll be harder next year, but every year is different and many factors affect how easy or hard it is to achieve a given goal.

I'd fully expect Spurs and Chelsea to improve drastically, but others drop off, and us strengthen. So top 7-8 should still be the target.

Lets break this down top from last season, top 5 will be there or thereabouts, Chelsea and Spurs will be in the mix, you'd have to hope we finish above a Newcastle side (who had CL committments up until the start of this year, sold there best striker )and by and large had a poor season by there recent standards, yet managed to finish above us.

Yes the sides finishing 6th, 7th and 8th have EL and conference league committments, chances are they all don't go the full distance and perhaps one side picks up in the league.

Don't forget Leeds had momentum second half of that season.

We couldn't really capitalise on one game a week with this manager, so doesn't really instill much confidence that much will change next season.

A top half finish may well be as good as it gets.

[AjaxAndy]

Lets break this down top from last season, top 5 will be there or thereabouts, Chelsea and Spurs will be in the mix, you'd have to hope we finish above a Newcastle side (who had CL committments up until the start of this year, sold there best striker )and by and large had a poor season by there recent standards, yet managed to finish above us.

Yes the sides finishing 6th, 7th and 8th have EL and conference league committments, chances are they all don't go the full distance and perhaps one side picks up in the league.

Don't forget Leeds had momentum second half of that season.

We couldn't really capitalise on one game a week with this manager, so doesn't really instill much confidence that much will change next season.

A top half finish may well be as good as it gets.

Yes you'd imagine Chelsea, Spurs and Newcastle will all finish above us, that's nothing to do with the manager and everything to do with the finances available to those clubs Vs us.

If we're to finish above the current top 5 + Chelsea, Spurs and Newcastle we'll have to over perform, so think if people are demanding top 7 or Moyes has failed they've probably got their expectations a bit out of whack with reality.

[777Kidnappings]

Yes you'd imagine Chelsea, Spurs and Newcastle will all finish above us, that's nothing to do with the manager and everything to do with the finances available to those clubs Vs us.

If we're to finish above the current top 5 + Chelsea, Spurs and Newcastle we'll have to over perform, so think if people are demanding top 7 or Moyes has failed they've probably got their expectations a bit out of whack with reality.

Feels like the season just gone was our chance. Oh well