Jarrad Branthwaite

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777Kidnappings
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Gary1878 wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:29 am No, its very unlikely he will be here long term. But selling him this summer will jeopardize our PL survival hopes in a big way, when we finally have a defensive unit that works well. That is worth a lot. We should be concerned about next season in terms of the quality of teams coming up, replacing those v poor teams that went down. It won't be as easy as last year.

Unfortunately, we will need a lot of the money brought in from transfers for cashflow/debt repayment. Add to the fact that Carlisle have some sort of transfer clause, then I don't think we will have much to play with.

Even if we didn't require the funds, buying 3x £20m players is fraught with difficulty as they are higher risk. This is because they still cost a fair amount and they might not make the grade (as we have found out over the last 7 years).

Would you really want Michael Keane and Mason Holgate at the back again? Because I think it would be a likely outcome of selling Branthwaite, especially if you buy a £20m CB that doesn't quite fit in or work out.

Buy low, sell high works with players like Onana who I don't think we will miss as much. Branthwaite is just different. And it's not just him you will miss, its his additive quality to the defensive unit. You take one key component away, and the whole unit becomes weaker. The amount of 1-0s that we had last season were the key to surviving. And it will continue to be the key for Dyche.

Also we'd have to spend 20m on Stephen Hawking for Holgate to play infront of a new signing
Gary1878
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777Kidnappings wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:34 am Also we'd have to spend 20m on Stephen Hawking for Holgate to play infront of a new signing
If I could see 1 or 2 CBs in the squad able to take his place, and a pathway to a sustainable transition allowing him to leave, then I wouldn't be so against the idea.

But having Keane as the next line of defence (literally), and then relying on Everton (with a dodgy transfer record) to go out and replace Branthwaite is just a massive risk we should really try not to take.

All in all, I just don't trust Everton enough in the transfer market.
AjaxAndy
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Think people need to remember that it's all profit on Branthwaite after whatever Carlisle's percentage is.

So if we get £75m profit we could potentially / in theory buy 4 players for £20m on 5 year contracts and we'd still make £55m PSR profit (4 players at £5m per year each).

Selling Branthwaite could be absolutely revolutionary for this squad if (and it's a big if) we can reinvest even just £20m of it.
StirlingBlue
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Jarrad Branthwaite

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I think we’re just talking cross purposes here - nobody is saying that’s it’s easy to go buy the next Branthwaite for £20m.

It is however much easier to buy a competent defender for £20m who might be slightly below Branthwaite’s level from this season, and replace that loss with investment in the rest of the squad.

We might even use that funds to be future Branthwaite’s like the 16 year old Scottish lad who will help us down the line.

We wouldn’t have needed 13 clean sheets to stay up if we were scoring more goals. We wouldn’t have needed the hundreds of blocks and clearances if we had a midfield who could retain more than 35% possession.
Gary1878
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AjaxAndy wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 12:48 pm Think people need to remember that it's all profit on Branthwaite after whatever Carlisle's percentage is.

So if we get £75m profit we could potentially / in theory buy 4 players for £20m on 5 year contracts and we'd still make £55m PSR profit (4 players at £5m per year each).

Selling Branthwaite could be absolutely revolutionary for this squad if (and it's a big if) we can reinvest even just £20m of it.
I think there are 2 different things here – there is PSR and then cashflow for the business.

Whilst it might be ok from a PSR perspective to spend it on x amount of players over longer contracts, from a business perspective, it could run us into serious issues.

Cashflow is going to be very important because we are going to have massive interest costs for the foreseeable future because of our debt pile, whoever takes us over. So the wage bill will have to come down, and any transfers will have to be managed very carefully.

Branthwaite is currently not on a big wage as he signed the deal when he was an unknown quantity. Probably £50k max. That’s £2.6m a season.

I am making this up, so forgive me, but I would expect that 4 x £20m players would be on an average of at least £70,000 a week. That equals £14.5m per season. Amortization from those transfers is £16m, meaning a £30.5m cost per season for 5 years.

So we would have gone from a cost of £2.6m per annum to £30m per annum. That’s not something that we can afford at this moment in time.

I can see a situation next summer where revenue will be higher going into the new stadium, and your plan above looks much more feasible. I would then be all for it. But this summer is just too early in my opinion for a number of reasons.
AjaxAndy
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Gary1878 wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:20 pm I think there are 2 different things here – there is PSR and then cashflow for the business.

Whilst it might be ok from a PSR perspective to spend it on x amount of players over longer contracts, from a business perspective, it could run us into serious issues.

Cashflow is going to be very important because we are going to have massive interest costs for the foreseeable future because of our debt pile, whoever takes us over. So the wage bill will have to come down, and any transfers will have to be managed very carefully.

Branthwaite is currently not on a big wage as he signed the deal when he was an unknown quantity. Probably £50k max. That’s £2.6m a season.

I am making this up, so forgive me, but I would expect that 4 x £20m players would be on an average of at least £70,000 a week. That equals £14.5m per season. Amortization from those transfers is £16m, meaning a £30.5m cost per season for 5 years.

So we would have gone from a cost of £2.6m per annum to £30m per annum. That’s not something that we can afford at this moment in time.

I can see a situation next summer where revenue will be higher going into the new stadium, and your plan above looks much more feasible. I would then be all for it. But this summer is just too early in my opinion for a number of reasons.
Yep our wage bill has been horribly high in recent years and something we definitely need to address (some players leaving will have help a bit but it's still bad).

We need bodies though, so whichever way we slice it there needs to be multiple bodies coming in through the door.
Toddacelli
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StirlingBlue wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:18 pm I think we’re just talking cross purposes here - nobody is saying that’s it’s easy to go buy the next Branthwaite for £20m.

It is however much easier to buy a competent defender for £20m who might be slightly below Branthwaite’s level from this season, and replace that loss with investment in the rest of the squad.

We might even use that funds to be future Branthwaite’s like the 16 year old Scottish lad who will help us down the line.

We wouldn’t have needed 13 clean sheets to stay up if we were scoring more goals. We wouldn’t have needed the hundreds of blocks and clearances if we had a midfield who could retain more than 35% possession.
I don’t like this. It’s sensible and well reasoned and even probably true. But I don’t like it. I want to flap about replacing Jarradizzle Branthwizzle.
Bluedylan1
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We can definitely replace Branthwaite and be fine, as good as he is and is going to be.

This isn't a ''well he's going, so let's underplay how good he is, like an ex-girlfriend who broke up with you'' thing either.

It's just the reality. Similar to Onana, we'll only ever see a limited version of Branthwaite's abilities at Everton because we play in a very pragmatic way (not a dig at Dyche btw, just the reality).

It would be really nice to sign another youngish prospect with a high ceiling and potential sell-on value to replace him, rather than a plodder who does a job though.
Bluebridge
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We’re not replacing Brainthwaite this summer, if we do it’ll be pure luck, I hope we can keep him one more season, but he’s exactly the type of signing we need,a five year project if you like, get them at 16/17, blood them in the stiffs and then a good loan somewhere.
Evertonian in NC
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We'd spunk whatever we are allowed to spend on Harry Fuckstain Maguire (fee/wages combo), and we all know it.
Audrey Horne
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Im terrified United will offer 50 million plus Maguire and they will accept it :(
StirlingBlue
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Audrey Horne wrote:Im terrified United will offer 50 million plus Maguire and they will accept it :(
He’s 31 now, he’s worth about £10m tops.

I do think he’d do well for us tbh (him and Tarks would be a nightmare on corners) but wrong age and wages would be too high.
AjaxAndy
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Audrey Horne wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 10:25 am Im terrified United will offer 50 million plus Maguire and they will accept it :(
We wouldn't because we need the actual cash for PSR, and we wouldn't be able to afford his wages.

Would I take Maguire for £15m and Man UTD paying almost all his wages with us picking up around £60k, absolutely. But as a completely separate deal with the £15m being spread out over 3-4 years.

Maguire is a very good player, he's become a bit of meme because the media and socials are cesspools, but whilst not an elite player he's probably a better player than we would have any right to attract.

My son's friend's dad supports Man U and I was discussing Maguire with him the other day, he said his first 2 seasons at UTD were fantastic, the Greece scandal hit and his next 2 were poor, however he's been really good again this year.

It's irrelevant anyway because he's not coming here, he wouldn't want to, and we couldn't afford a deal anyone would be happy with.
Audrey Horne
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But he is 31, on his way out, on a high wage, not really wanted by his club.

Exactly the kind of deal we have been doing recently.

Which is why i mentioned it.

I would not be surprised to see us take a massive cut in what Branthwaite is worth, and take Maguire on.
Bluedylan1
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Much as he's not nearly as bad as he'd made out to be by social media hate mobs and tabloids, if we signed Harrold Maguire, I'd want Thelwell to clear his office out and be escorted off the premises by security within the hour.
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