Relegation

[bigmanbob]

We aren’t mathematically safe but we aren’t going down. You may as well lock the thread.

It’s between Forest, Luton and Burnley now.

I like to think of myself as more a realist than a pessimist, but I don't know why we're all so certain it's already sorted. It would be so Everton to concede in injury time vs Brentford after the highs of Wednesday night. I'm not celebrating yet

[Gary1878]

I like to think of myself as more a realist than a pessimist, but I don't know why we're all so certain it's already sorted. It would be so Everton to concede in injury time vs Brentford after the highs of Wednesday night. I'm not celebrating yet

Statistically, it is now very difficult for 2 out of Luton, Burnley and Forest to finish above us.

It would require us to lose every game, and 2 out of the 3 other sides to win 3/4 games. And then you also consider that Forest are playing City next, and that we are also playing Luton with Brentford/Sheffield Utd at home that run.

Even from a pessimistic angle, you would still say that it’s an unlikely scenario, even if we lost all 4 games, which I don’t think we will do.

[Juanito]

Think Brentford will be hard after Wednesdays efforts. I would happily take a draw to help us over the line

[AjaxAndy]

Just to show how it's virtually impossible for us to go down here's what would have to happen.

Nottingham Forest:

Forest Vs Man City
Sheffield United Vs Forest
Forest Vs Chelsea
Burnley Vs Forest

Forest are currently 7 points behind us, meaning they need 2 wins and 2 draws from those matches to pass us based on us getting zero points in our remaining fixtures. As we have a superior goal difference (+6) even a point for us means they'd need to most likely win 3 of those fixtures. As they have City next, which they'll lose, they really have to win all 3 of their remaining matches.

Are they winnable? Yes, but Forest have won 7 games all season so in reality it's not happening, and if we only win one game of our remaining fixtures even that wouldn't be enough for them.

Luton Town:

Wolves Vs Luton
Luton Vs Everton
West Ham Vs Luton
Luton Vs Fulham

Luton are 8 points behind us, meaning they'd need 3 wins from those fixtures and us to not pick up a single point, if we so much as draw a game they'd need to win all 4 due to our superior goal difference. They've won 6 games all season for context here.

Now their fixtures are probably easier than Forest's but in reality they're going to need to win all 4 games because we will pick up at least one point in our final 4 games. They aren't doing that... A team that's won 6 all season and is in horrible form isn't winning 4 on the spin.

But let's just say Luton or Forest do amass enough points to overhaul us as unlikely as that is, that wouldn't even matter because it would take BOTH teams to win enough points so they BOTH overtake us in the league for us to go down.

It's not mathematically impossible for us to go down, but the circumstances for it to happen as soooooooo very very unlikely because it'd take not just one team to do the unimaginable but two.

[Deano Blue Boy]

Thing is with Forest, they're a variable.

They could get points back.

Luton is a definite. Just need to out point then to be happy and confident watching us against Arsenal

[TheRam]

Here’s the roadmap.

Luton win on the weekend and we lose. Down to five points having to play them on a Friday night.

They beat us and it’s down to two. At that point I put us as favourites to go down as we have arsenal on the last day.

It’s highly unlikely though. It means Luton have to dig out a run of wins they probably aren’t capable of but I would like it to be dead and buried by next Friday.

[AjaxAndy]

Here’s the roadmap.

Luton win on the weekend and we lose. Down to five points having to play them on a Friday night.

They beat us and it’s down to two. At that point I put us as favourites to go down as we have arsenal on the last day.

It’s highly unlikely though. It means Luton have to dig out a run of wins they probably aren’t capable of but I would like it to be dead and buried by next Friday.

But you're forgetting that even if Luton surpass us then we still aren't relegated. For that to happen Forest need to win their last 3 games because they won't get anything from City in their next game.

And if we beat Sheffield United then even those 3 wins wouldn't matter because we'd have 1 more point than Forest.

If we only drew against Sheffield United and lost all other games then Forest winning two and drawing one wouldn't be enough to keep them up.

So you're asking not just Luton or Forest to somehow suprass us but BOTH.

The chances of that playing out are just unbelievably remote.

[Bluedylan1]

We're already safe imo. Even if we didn't get another point.

I think we'll beat Brentford and Sheff U now that some confidence has returned and the psychological weight has been lifted a fair bit, and may also get something at Luton.

[Gash]

It would be nice to have it done and dusted this weekend but it would take an absolute freak of results for us to go down from this point. Bookies have us ranging from 25-50/1 which says it all really.

[777Kidnappings]

Here’s the roadmap.

Luton win on the weekend and we lose. Down to five points having to play them on a Friday night.

They beat us and it’s down to two. At that point I put us as favourites to go down as we have arsenal on the last day.

It’s highly unlikely though. It means Luton have to dig out a run of wins they probably aren’t capable of but I would like it to be dead and buried by next Friday.

That's about 3% chance. Even then we are still favorites as we will be massively odds on to beat sheff utd which would then mean they'd have to win their last 2 as well.

I'm still worried because none of it individually is that outlandish but it would take an a lot of unlikely results in a row for it to happen. Personally I expect wolves to beat Luton to make it even less likely

[brap2]

Here’s the roadmap.

Luton win on the weekend and we lose. Down to five points having to play them on a Friday night.

They beat us and it’s down to two. At that point I put us as favourites to go down as we have arsenal on the last day.

It’s highly unlikely though. It means Luton have to dig out a run of wins they probably aren’t capable of but I would like it to be dead and buried by next Friday.

I absolutely HATE this

[weimaranerblues]

Nottingham Forest:
Possible probable results , not beyond them , is Awonyi out
Forest Vs Man City L
Sheffield United Vs Forest W
Forest Vs Chelsea ? Fuck knows
Burnley Vs Forest W

Possible PTS back


Luton Town:
They have players coming back most likely next week.
Wolves Vs Luton W Wolves poor recently
Luton Vs Everton W evening game under the lights
West Ham Vs Luton ?
Luton Vs Fulham ?


We may even get a point back.
Just don't want to loose the Luton game and be only

2pts ahead.

Most likely go as far as the Sheff Utd game to be certain

I mean Luton could loose all four and Burnley could shock Utd and beat Forest last day and survive

[Cantoffee]

I absolutely HATE this

But it's wrong. As pointed out, Forest would also need to pick up a lot of points.

What are the chances they pick up even enough to catch us now?

Chances of both Luton and Forest picking up 9-10 points in the final 4 matches is unbelievably remote. Coupled with us picking up less than 2, almost impossible.

We are safe, although I'd like us to finish on a high and as high up as possible. Sad to say but the extra £2m in prize money per place does matter so going above Brentford is helpful.

[Shogun]

We're staying up. Chill out.

[Gash]

As an outside chance I could see Forest possibly winning their last three games, they've got Sheff Utd, Chelsea and Burnley, the first and last they'll fancy and anyone should fancy Chelsea at home but it would still be pretty remote for a team that's won seven all season to win three in four. Even if they did Luton have won six all season so them winning half that again is extremely unlikely too.