Relegation

[AjaxAndy]

Just looked at the table and Luton have won 6 games all season... If we didn't win another point they'd need to win 3 of their last 4... That's 50% of the entire wins they've achieved all season.

Forest would need 2 wins and 2 draws, or 3 wins.

I know we all are pretty confident of being safe now, but shows just how comfortable we really are.

[superpull]

Just looked at the table and Luton have won 6 games all season... If we didn't win another point they'd need to win 3 of their last 4... That's 50% of the entire wins they've achieved all season.

Forest would need 2 wins and 2 draws, or 3 wins.

I know we all are pretty confident of being safe now, but shows just how comfortable we really are.

How many had we won all season/how many at home had we won all season before we won 3 of the last 4?

[Shogun]

Apart from Brighton, not sure there's been a side more impacted by injuries over the last few months than Luton. Adebayo coming back could make a huge difference in the run-in for them.

We're safe as far as I'm concerned.

[AjaxAndy]

How many had we won all season/how many at home had we won all season before we won 3 of the last 4?

Yeah but I think the chances of either Forest or Luton winning 3 out of 4 games is about as low as you can get. We did go on a very bad run but we'd had a good one prior to that showing we are capable.

Although Forest need 2 wins and 2 draws to overhaul us (and us not pick up any points) their next game is Man City, so again really like Luton they need to win 3 games to even have a chance of passing us as they won't get a sniff against City.

To go down that'd mean Luton and Forest need to win 6 games between them from 8 fixtures. The chances of us going down are about a billion to one.

[HANNU]

To go down that'd mean Luton and Forest need to win 6 games between them from 8 fixtures. The chances of us going down are about a billion to one.

The chances based on that we have a 0.7% chance of religation is actually 142 to 1 but I love your optimism

[AjaxAndy]

The chances based on that we have a 0.7% chance of religation is actually 142 to 1 but I love your optimism

Haha well it's very very unlikely either way

[superpull]

Yeah, it's pretty academic like.

But Luton scraping a win at Wolves and us being shit at home against Brentford is definitely more likely than 10%.

Then Luton beating us isn't exactly a lottery win of a likelihood.
Then they're only 2 points behind us.

Granted, Forest aren't likely to beat City next up.

But I would very much like to get to mathematical certainty as soon as possible. (Be great to get to 40+ points after the deduction to be honest, that might be a stretch too far though)

[Cantoffee]

Apart from Brighton, not sure there's been a side more impacted by injuries over the last few months than Luton. Adebayo coming back could make a huge difference in the run-in for them.

We're safe as far as I'm concerned.

Would 100% have Adebayo here you know. Think he'd fit a Dyche team and better than Beto.

[Blueomar]

sure would rather be on 41 than 33.

[Paddockoldie]

The chances based on that we have a 0.7% chance of religation is actually 142 to 1 but I love your optimism

Banging a score on that... life's a double edged sword, but money wins

[Goaljira]

Yeah but I think the chances of either Forest or Luton winning 3 out of 4 games is about as low as you can get. We did go on a very bad run but we'd had a good one prior to that showing we are capable.

Although Forest need 2 wins and 2 draws to overhaul us (and us not pick up any points) their next game is Man City, so again really like Luton they need to win 3 games to even have a chance of passing us as they won't get a sniff against City.

To go down that'd mean Luton and Forest need to win 6 games between them from 8 fixtures. The chances of us going down are about a billion to one they say.

And still they came.....

Duh duh duuuuuuuh

[AjaxAndy]

Banging a score on that... life's a double edged sword, but money wins

It's not even good odds imo... The chances of BOTH Luton and Forest over taking us are soooo small that even at 1000/1 it'd be a pretty rubbish bet

[CannockPricey]

I think we'll be fine but a Burnley win at Old Trafford which isn't the most outrageous suggestion given some of United's performances this season might make the Forest v Luton equation a bit more complex.

If Burnley can be within a couple of points going to the last day, they are at home to Forest which with Forest in this slightly weird meltdown, they would have a very decent chance of winning.

[Gary1878]

We aren’t mathematically safe but we aren’t going down. You may as well lock the thread.

It’s between Forest, Luton and Burnley now.

[superpull]

May as well keep it open to save creating a new one next November