777 Partners Takeover

[Bluedylan1]

I'm just going to write a broad set of statements that set out my very vague understanding of this entire thing, to get it clear in my head, and if I'm wrong on some or all of these points, anyone would be welcome to correct me or help me to understand better (I'm massively bored of football business matters).

- Moshiri has agreed to sell to 777, because presumably they are offering close to what he wants. As the months and months have passed, it's become clear that 777 don't have the funds to buy/sustain the club and are actually running a massively shoddy, possibly illegal operation in other aspects of their business.

- Other parties interested in buying the club don't want to pay what Moshiri wants, and so they are waiting for Moshiri to accept that the 777 deal isn't going to happen, and that Moshiri will eventually be forced to come to the table with that, and sell the club at their price not his.

- Meanwhile, the club is losing significant amounts of money in it's daily operations and in funding the stadium build. Moshiri is refusing to fund any of this, and is taking loans from 777 under the assumption that they will eventually own the club, but those loans are just increasing the club's debt.

- As we near the end of the season, 777 are being widely discredited, and it appears that Moshiri is having to accept that they can't complete the deal and will have to consider other offers. At least one other potential buyer is presumably waiting to come to the table, and to get the club closer to their valuation.

- The club is getting near to going into administration, but will avoid it for this season at least. Apart from prospective new owners, who could buy the club much cheaper, it's not in any of the other parties (Moshiri, MSP, other creditors) interest for the club to go into administration because they would only get a minimal amount of what they are owed back. Prospective new owners are effectively playing a game of brinksmanship in trying to buy the club at the last possible moment before it goes into administration, to get it at the cheapest price

- We're at a point where we need to get this entire thing resolved in the coming weeks, or we will be forced to sell our key players over the summer at presumably reduced prices to continue to operate, and fund the stadium build.

Is any of that correct? Or are there other missing pieces?

[777Kidnappings]

If we get mathematically safe with the 9 for administration can we do it this season? You can't in the lower leagues but can you in the premier league

[Gary1878]

As I have feared, it's the interest on the loans that are the killer.

There are a few things we can do:

1. Borrow more from existing lenders to get the stadium done. Interest costs will be high, but the we only have 1 more year to get through and then we should see a big increase in revenue. It's also in their interest as existing lenders to ensure the viability of the business and that the stadium construction gets completed. Otherwise they will be out of pocket and that's no good for anyone.

2. Once the stadium funding is complete, we need to refinance the loans into longer, more manageable long term debt through corporate bond issuance. This will lower interest costs.

3. Bring the wage bill right down, which to a larger extent, should be done this summer with lots of players contracts running down. I wouldn't think that we will be bringing anyone of any substance in this transfer window. Free transfers and loans will be the name of the game.

4. Start leveraging the financial benefit of the stadium now. Get some deals over the line, such as stadium rights, with payment in advance if possible. If we could sign a 10 year deal that gave us some of the money up front, that would be a big help.

5. Sell players. Probably an inevitable outcome, but we need to ensure PL competitiveness as well as balancing the books. Will require a substantial amount of work from KT and Dyche to get this right.

Once you go into administration, all bets are off, and anything and everything is possible. For the sake of his personal finances, Moshiri is much better off at least partially financing us until we get into the new stadium, and then having some decent value to sell off.

Work with the creditors you have to find solutions. There is always a way. There are always parties willing to take a risk for a very good reward. You just have to go and find the right people that have the right contacts to find them.

[StirlingBlue]

Re: the Esk

What is the alternative?

What is preferable, someone who actually understands finances and the operations of business, independently reporting with some depth and expertise what they can see and interpret based upon available evidence,... or having the fanbase essentially oblivious, operating in a vacuum of information, where only supposition and uninformed opinion reside?

We should be supporting these sources of information, especially the independent voices we have that provide what little we actually know, even if only 80% right. Forecasting, and projecting, which the papers don't really deal in, are never 100% right either. It's the weather man's conundrum. Yet it's still a hell of alot better than nothing at all.

The other thing is, just because there is a Sky Sports or The Times masthead emblazoned above an article, doesn't mean it's 100% accurate.

The Guardian even use the Esk's opinion in their articles. As far as reliability is concerned I don't see many referenced articles from "Bob from NSNO" or "Fred from toffeeweb".

It's so often shoot the messenger from people that admittedly have little clue themselves. Even if he does enjoy being the source that many listen to, I bet Sky Sports do too.

Honestly couldn’t disagree more with this - he’s an internet charlatan doing it for his own follower count in an attempt to monetise as much as possible.

To that end he uses his basic financial acumen to doom monger in a way that appeals to his audience, it sounds convincing as he uses enough specific words to sound like an expert but he’s wrong way more often than he’s right

[PoD1878]

I wont 'quote reply' it makes the message huge. But on your point of players, we will have a squad of 18 - providing Coleman signs the extension he's reportedly been offered. We would have to sell maybe 2/3 to get anything in, working on the basis of needing a squad of at least 23, that's 5/7 new players this window. We'll be in for another long season.

Thelwell will need to work some serious magic.






Administration is a terrible idea to do if it's 'our choice' as suggested by some because we might stay up. Who is paying the smaller business we probably owe money to. What about the staff we will inevitably lay off as a result.

[Gary1878]

I'm just going to write a broad set of statements that set out my very vague understanding of this entire thing, to get it clear in my head, and if I'm wrong on some or all of these points, anyone would be welcome to correct me or help me to understand better (I'm massively bored of football business matters).

- Moshiri has agreed to sell to 777, because presumably they are offering close to what he wants. As the months and months have passed, it's become clear that 777 don't have the funds to buy/sustain the club and are actually running a massively shoddy, possibly illegal operation in other aspects of their business.

- Other parties interested in buying the club don't want to pay what Moshiri wants, and so they are waiting for Moshiri to accept that the 777 deal isn't going to happen, and that Moshiri will eventually be forced to come to the table with that, and sell the club at their price not his.

- Meanwhile, the club is losing significant amounts of money in it's daily operations and in funding the stadium build. Moshiri is refusing to fund any of this, and is taking loans from 777 under the assumption that they will eventually own the club, but those loans are just increasing the club's debt.

- As we near the end of the season, 777 are being widely discredited, and it appears that Moshiri is having to accept that they can't complete the deal and will have to consider other offers. At least one other potential buyer is presumably waiting to come to the table, and to get the club closer to their valuation.

- The club is getting near to going into administration, but will avoid it for this season at least. Apart from prospective new owners, who could buy the club much cheaper, it's not in any of the other parties (Moshiri, MSP, other creditors) interest for the club to go into administration because they would only get a minimal amount of what they are owed back. Prospective new owners are effectively playing a game of brinksmanship in trying to buy the club at the last possible moment before it goes into administration, to get it at the cheapest price

- We're at a point where we need to get this entire thing resolved in the coming weeks, or we will be forced to sell our key players over the summer at presumably reduced prices to continue to operate, and fund the stadium build.

Is any of that correct? Or are there other missing pieces?

Yes. That's pretty much it in a nutshell.

[StirlingBlue]

The other thing people are missing about administration is that it will be a fire sale, massively undervaluing our players to get money in quickly.

You’d probably be looking at any offers of 30m+ for Branthwaite or Onana being accepted even though we can get much more

[Gary1878]

The other thing people are missing about administration is that it will be a fire sale, massively undervaluing our players to get money in quickly.

You’d probably be looking at any offers of 30m+ for Branthwaite or Onana being accepted even though we can get much more

Yes, and also the fact that the club won't be in control of any decisions, the administrators will.

[brap2]

Honestly couldn’t disagree more with this - he’s an internet charlatan doing it for his own follower count in an attempt to monetise as much as possible.

To that end he uses his basic financial acumen to doom monger in a way that appeals to his audience, it sounds convincing as he uses enough specific words to sound like an expert but he’s wrong way more often than he’s right

Tell us more!

I've been so desperate for accurate info the last few weeks have been very difficult.

I'm ready, I'm listening!

@Bally do we still have podcast capability? I have a guest in mind

[PoD1878]

This makes Everton staff all sound stupid... as if someone has gone in one morning and said "guys, I was thinking last night, I don't think this is going to happen you know"

[HANNU]

This makes Everton staff all sound stupid... as if someone has gone in one morning and said "guys, I was thinking last night, I don't think this is going to happen you know"

i imagine thats exactly what happened

[4evablu]

Talk of going into admin is pure rag talk to try find a headline 2+2=5

[Bluedylan1]

Talk of going into admin is pure rag talk to try find a headline 2+2=5

I think it's fair to acknowledge that it's a possibility, and it might've already happened if MSP has called in their loans, but it's also fair to say that administration is in nobody's interest, apart from a potential new owner who might acquire the club much cheaper (and even then that's arguable, because you're probably still selling all of your assets at reduced prices and getting relegated subsequently).

I think a buyer wants to get us just before we go into administration, to get it at the cheapest price, where Moshiri's hand is forced to sell at a lower price but where the club also retains most of it's value for the new owners, similar to the Hicks and Gillett situation at Liverpool.

[Juanito]

This makes Everton staff all sound stupid... as if someone has gone in one morning and said "guys, I was thinking last night, I don't think this is going to happen you know"

Not all staff, just the board

[4evablu]

I think it's fair to acknowledge that it's a possibility, and it might've already happened if MSP has called in their loans, but it's also fair to say that administration is in nobody's interest, apart from a potential new owner who might acquire the club much cheaper (and even then that's arguable, because you're probably still selling all of your assets at reduced prices and getting relegated subsequently).

I think a buyer wants to get us just before we go into administration, to get it at the cheapest price, where Moshiri's hand is forced to sell at a lower price but where the club also retains most of it's value for the new owners, similar to the Hicks and Gillett situation at Liverpool.

This a truer scenario as it’ll be a “panic sell” by moshiri
Once the administrators are in nothing goes cheap as they sell at market value…not give away prices….as everyone thinks as that’s their role to “administer the business” in the best means possible.ie get the best possible price if they sell off assets but mainly manage the finances to bring the business back in line.